Biggest mispricing right now
Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Geopolitics$2k 24h vol
Polymarket bettors price this 4.9pp higher than Kalshi bettors do.
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi 9¢ Polymarket 14¢
+4.9pp
Kalshi cheaper
See full breakdown →
Other dislocations?
Next-biggest spreads
Entertainment
How many weeks will Iceman spend at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? — Will ICEMAN by Drake spend 4 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? — At least 4 weeks
K
P
0%50%100%
92¢ / 88¢
-4.5pp
PM cheaper
Politics / 2028
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Who will win the next presidential election? — Marco Rubio
K
P
0%50%100%
19¢ / 14¢
-4.3pp
PM cheaper
Other
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? — Bruno Fernandes
K
P
0%50%100%
6¢ / 2¢
-3.9pp
PM cheaper
Politics / 2028
2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
K
P
0%50%100%
22¢ / 25¢
+3.7pp
Kalshi cheaper
Politics / 2028
2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
K
P
0%50%100%
6¢ / 2¢
-3.3pp
PM cheaper
Politics / 2028
2028 Republican presidential nominee — Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
K
P
0%50%100%
5¢ / 3¢
-2.9pp
PM cheaper
Most traded
Highest combined 24h volume across both venues
Sports
Pro Basketball Finals: New York (3) vs San Antonio (2) — Will New York win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?
54¢ / 54¢
$6.918m
24h vol
Sports
Pro Basketball Finals: New York (3) vs San Antonio (2) — Will San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?
46¢ / 47¢
$4.918m
24h vol
Politics / 2028
2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Will Hunter Biden be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
1¢ / 1¢
$1.527m
24h vol
Other
Will U.S. confirm that aliens exist? — Will U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
17¢ / 15¢
$358k
24h vol
Sports
Women's French Open Winner — Will Mirra Andreeva win the French Open?
79¢ / 78¢
$289k
24h vol
Politics / Elections
California Governor winner? — Who will win the governorship in California? — Chad Bianco
0¢ / 0¢
$272k
24h vol
By category
520 markets across 8 categories
Sports · 201
See all 201 →- Pro Baseball Home Runs Leader — Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?19¢ / 5¢-14.0pp
- NHL Conn Smythe Trophy — Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year? — Mitch Marner52¢ / 41¢-11.0pp
- Pro Baseball Home Runs Leader — Will Kyle Schwarber lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?53¢ / 47¢-6.5pp
- Pro Baseball Home Runs Leader — Will Rafael Devers lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?1¢ / 6¢+5.9pp
Politics / Elections · 88
See all 88 →- MA-04 House winner? — Will Democratic win the House race for MA-04? — Democratic party50¢ / 94¢+43.1pp
- Who will advance in the Los Angeles mayoral election? — Will Nithya Raman qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?62¢ / 23¢-38.9pp
- CA-45 primary: Who will advance? — Will Tom Vo advance in the 2026 CA-45 primary?49¢ / 14¢-35.0pp
- CA-45 primary: Who will advance? — Will Chi Charlie Nguyen advance in the 2026 CA-45 primary?44¢ / 10¢-33.5pp
Other · 75
See all 75 →- Who will be arrested before 2027? — Will Susan Rice be arrested before Jan 2027?9¢ / 42¢+33.0pp
- Who will be arrested before 2027? — Will Lisa Cook be arrested before Jan 2027?20¢ / 44¢+24.0pp
- Who will be the next UN Secretary-General? — Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? — Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés4¢ / 18¢+14.4pp
- Who will be arrested before 2027? — Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before Jan 2027?9¢ / 22¢+13.9pp
Politics / 2028 · 64
See all 64 →- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Who will win the next presidential election? — Marco Rubio19¢ / 14¢-4.3pp
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?22¢ / 25¢+3.7pp
- Oklahoma Senate winner? (2028) — Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oklahoma? — Republican party88¢ / 92¢+3.5pp
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?6¢ / 2¢-3.3pp
Geopolitics · 61
See all 61 →- Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? — Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?1¢ / 42¢+40.5pp
- Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? — Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?3¢ / 42¢+39.3pp
- Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? — Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?2¢ / 40¢+37.7pp
- Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? — Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?3¢ / 38¢+35.0pp
Entertainment · 16
See all 16 →- How many weeks will Iceman spend at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? — Will ICEMAN by Drake spend 4 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? — At least 4 weeks92¢ / 88¢-4.5pp
- Who will win Top Chef Season 23? — Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23?99¢ / 97¢-1.1pp
- Who will win Top Chef Season 23? — Will Sieger Bayer win Top Chef Season 23?1¢ / 2¢+1.1pp
- Who will win Top Chef Season 23? — Will Jaspratap “Jassi” Bindra win Top Chef Season 23?1¢ / 0¢-0.5pp
Politics · 10
See all 10 →- Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? — Will John Ratcliffe leaves Director of the CIA in before 2027?16¢ / 27¢+10.5pp
- Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? — Will Russell Vought leaves OMB Director in before 2027?19¢ / 27¢+7.5pp
- Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? — Will Scott Bessent leaves Secretary of the Treasury in before 2027?21¢ / 14¢-6.5pp
- Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? — Will Marco Rubio leaves Secretary of State in before 2027?18¢ / 12¢-5.5pp
Health / Science · 5
See all 5 →- Measles cases in 2026? — Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026? — Above 300084¢ / 77¢-7.0pp
- Measles cases in 2026? — Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026? — Above 400034¢ / 33¢-1.0pp
- Ebola pandemic in 2026? — New pandemic by 2026? — In Dec 31, 20269¢ / 8¢-1.0pp
- Measles cases in 2026? — Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026? — Above 100009¢ / 9¢+0.8pp